Unknown Unknowns

Today, in Singapore's Straits Times, its Second Minister for Finance, Tharman Shanmugaratnam was quoted the term "unknown unknowns". He is quoted to be have said "the unknown unknowns that come along every few years, and it could be a pretty vicious unknown unknown with an unwinding that's unpredictable in global financial markets."

Ah... this term is not new actually, another notable person first came out with this concept some five years ago but based on a national security context. I remembered it distinctly as I think it has many relevances in the current environment of our globalized world.

I quote from Donald Rumsfeld, ex-Secretary of Defense of United States:

The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.
—Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing

For more of his poetry, you can get from here where the above was extracted too.

So, what is the solution to this unknown unknown problem. Scenario planning is one traditional tool that many governments and organizations has been using but with so many potential variables in different contexts, I think it can be useful to only a certain extent. Shell is one global business that uses it.

However recently, Cognitive-Edge and the Arlington Institute has assisted as two principle consultants to RAHS (Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning System) in Singapore.

"Some of the latest technology employed in the RAHS system allow for model-building, monitoring, weak signal detection and pattern analysis. Integrating traditional scenario planning frameworks with innovative thought models like the Cynefin concepts pioneered by Cognitive Edge ensures that the system is robust and able to handle a diverse spectrum of threats"

NEWS RELEASE 1 February 2007 Singapore to showcase innovative Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) system

So, in integrating with new thought models offered by Cognitive Edge and tools developed by The Arlington Institute, Singapore is pioneering ahead in this field of solving the "unknown unknowns" problem. I am not sure whether it is being used as part of the economic and financial defence of Singapore, although it seems the the main application of the system is against terroism and health-related threats like SARS.

Nevertheless, it should provide a shield of some sorts and hopefully it does what it promises to do. That is still an unknown unknown and only when we know what can be known, therefore we cannot possibly know.