Recently, just discovered another fantastic video site just like TED. FORA TV however is very different from TED in terms of its theme and content. There are more on geopolitics, military, economics... more serious stuff than TED.
Its sessions are also definitely longer as it includes speeches which may last more than an hour....
The URL :
http://www.fora.tv/
Showing posts with label Knowledge. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Knowledge. Show all posts
Sunday, October 7, 2007
Saturday, September 22, 2007
Technology Entertainment and Design
Totally enjoyed this website http://www.ted.com. This yearly conference brings about the best speakers from around the world.
So far, I have watched Malcom Gladwell with his different viewpoints on happiness, Al Gore who happens to extremely funny where he made several jokes and Steven Pinker on Violence.
I thought the quality of the speakers with breadth of topics is invaluable. Anyone with any interest in anything can go down there and find something related. Best thing is that it is short and to the point (less than 20minutes for most videos).
Kudos! to TED for making available for everyone
So far, I have watched Malcom Gladwell with his different viewpoints on happiness, Al Gore who happens to extremely funny where he made several jokes and Steven Pinker on Violence.
I thought the quality of the speakers with breadth of topics is invaluable. Anyone with any interest in anything can go down there and find something related. Best thing is that it is short and to the point (less than 20minutes for most videos).
Kudos! to TED for making available for everyone
Sunday, August 12, 2007
Grameen Bank - Social innovation to fight poverty
I remembered I had read the story of Mr Muhammad Yunus, the Nobel Peace Prize winner for 2006.
This man brought about a total change in Bangladesh's banking industry but setting up Grameen Bank, a bank that provide small amount of money (microcredit) to poor villagers to help them startup small businesses. No longer was there a need for collateral and security when the villagers borrow money to help them sustain a living. The banking model that Grameen Bank had setup was based on trust, community and accountability.
In effect, it revolutionized the way banks were being seen as just a pure profit making entity. Yunus "changed the rules of the game" by making a great social impact in the lives of these villages by this innovative approach of lending. It has proven to be good weapon against the vicious cycle of poverty that had perpetuated the poorest villagers in Bangladesh.
In the year 2007, Grameen provided loans to 7.21 million people of which 97% are women. What is interesting is that Grameen has been profitable other than some years; maintaining an excellent loan recovery rate of 98.61% while at the same time achieving its social aims of helping the poor.
Clearly a success story by Yunus to eradicate poverty in Bangladesh and perhaps in the future to the rest of the developing world. For more information on how they lend the credit and their 16 decisions model.
BTW, Yunus recently was also named the top 30 entrepreneurs of all time too by Business Week alongside Bill Gates, Henry Ford and other well-known people.
This man brought about a total change in Bangladesh's banking industry but setting up Grameen Bank, a bank that provide small amount of money (microcredit) to poor villagers to help them startup small businesses. No longer was there a need for collateral and security when the villagers borrow money to help them sustain a living. The banking model that Grameen Bank had setup was based on trust, community and accountability.
In effect, it revolutionized the way banks were being seen as just a pure profit making entity. Yunus "changed the rules of the game" by making a great social impact in the lives of these villages by this innovative approach of lending. It has proven to be good weapon against the vicious cycle of poverty that had perpetuated the poorest villagers in Bangladesh.
In the year 2007, Grameen provided loans to 7.21 million people of which 97% are women. What is interesting is that Grameen has been profitable other than some years; maintaining an excellent loan recovery rate of 98.61% while at the same time achieving its social aims of helping the poor.
Clearly a success story by Yunus to eradicate poverty in Bangladesh and perhaps in the future to the rest of the developing world. For more information on how they lend the credit and their 16 decisions model.
BTW, Yunus recently was also named the top 30 entrepreneurs of all time too by Business Week alongside Bill Gates, Henry Ford and other well-known people.
Thursday, August 9, 2007
Knowledge Innovation - Google (Innovative web-centric business model)
I originally posted this in my master's course discussion forum about how knowledge innovation can really "change the rules of the game" in a given industry. In my forum posting, I described the rise of Google in comparison with Microsoft which were reliant on their PC-centric model of software.
From the early 1980s to the late 1990s, Microsoft was the dominant leader in the software industry, totally eliminating all competition through its sheer financial might. It had a virtual monopoly of the PC market, where all new computers shipped to consumers were Microsoft Windows. Netscape, Novell and other companies were all defeated or eliminated out of the respective market shares. Microsoft made the PC the central component in their strategy to continue their dominance. It was the PC-Centric model that Microsoft had the consumers hooked on.
However, in 1996, here comes along two Stanford University Ph.D. candidates namely, Larry Page and Sergey Brin who both co-founded Google. Bill Gates did not see this coming where the PC-era has somewhat shifted towards the network age of the dot.com era. Google revolutionized the entire industry by introducing a very effective and efficient search engine which can allows users to access the most viewed or ranked web pages. Microsoft at that time, did not even have a search engine like what we see today in MSN. Yahoo was No. 1 search engine then, but Google slowly caught up in the upcoming years. Google currently has 49.2% share of searches as compared to Yahoo's 23.8% according to Nielsen NetRating for July 2006. MSN is in a distant third at 9.6%.
What is more significant for Google was the way they innovated using their new knowledge. They managed to somehow bring about a new business model of advertising in the web. This product service was called AdSense which allows web advertisers to put content to Google's search results. This had a cost-per-click and cost-per-view scheme. This advertising revenue brought about nearly USD 10.5 billion dollars in the fiscal year of 2006. With their high stock prices and large cash pile, Google had been able to attract the best software talent in the job market, and also make several key acquisitions like YouTube, Blogspot and Doubleclicks in the past 1-2 years.
Furthermore, there has been an introduction of use of on-line productivity software called Google Enteprise Premium Applications which is a direct challenge to Microsoft Office. Obviously, Google is trying to increase their licensing revenues which stood at only USD 112 million dollars as compared to their Adsense revenue which is significantly higher.
The market has shown tremendous confidence in Google's ability to innovate and to continue to earn better profits than Microsoft. On the last market closing day on 8 Aug 2007, the following are the stock prices for both companies:
Google: USD 525.78
Microsoft: USD 30.00
Thats a difference of nearly USD 495.78 dollars! Certainly Google is way ahead of Microsoft if stock prices are used as a measure of success.
However, It seems that Bill Gate is not resting on his laurels. He has been quoted in leaked memos in October 2005 to have said:
"More than any other company, we have the vision, assets, experience, and aspirations to deliver experiences and solutions across the entire range of digital workstyle & digital lifestyle scenarios, and to do so at scale, reaching users, developers and businesses across all markets."
So, the battle between the giants continues even though the old PC-centric world is long gone and we are now in the web-centric age.
From the early 1980s to the late 1990s, Microsoft was the dominant leader in the software industry, totally eliminating all competition through its sheer financial might. It had a virtual monopoly of the PC market, where all new computers shipped to consumers were Microsoft Windows. Netscape, Novell and other companies were all defeated or eliminated out of the respective market shares. Microsoft made the PC the central component in their strategy to continue their dominance. It was the PC-Centric model that Microsoft had the consumers hooked on.
However, in 1996, here comes along two Stanford University Ph.D. candidates namely, Larry Page and Sergey Brin who both co-founded Google. Bill Gates did not see this coming where the PC-era has somewhat shifted towards the network age of the dot.com era. Google revolutionized the entire industry by introducing a very effective and efficient search engine which can allows users to access the most viewed or ranked web pages. Microsoft at that time, did not even have a search engine like what we see today in MSN. Yahoo was No. 1 search engine then, but Google slowly caught up in the upcoming years. Google currently has 49.2% share of searches as compared to Yahoo's 23.8% according to Nielsen NetRating for July 2006. MSN is in a distant third at 9.6%.
What is more significant for Google was the way they innovated using their new knowledge. They managed to somehow bring about a new business model of advertising in the web. This product service was called AdSense which allows web advertisers to put content to Google's search results. This had a cost-per-click and cost-per-view scheme. This advertising revenue brought about nearly USD 10.5 billion dollars in the fiscal year of 2006. With their high stock prices and large cash pile, Google had been able to attract the best software talent in the job market, and also make several key acquisitions like YouTube, Blogspot and Doubleclicks in the past 1-2 years.
Furthermore, there has been an introduction of use of on-line productivity software called Google Enteprise Premium Applications which is a direct challenge to Microsoft Office. Obviously, Google is trying to increase their licensing revenues which stood at only USD 112 million dollars as compared to their Adsense revenue which is significantly higher.
The market has shown tremendous confidence in Google's ability to innovate and to continue to earn better profits than Microsoft. On the last market closing day on 8 Aug 2007, the following are the stock prices for both companies:
Google: USD 525.78
Microsoft: USD 30.00
Thats a difference of nearly USD 495.78 dollars! Certainly Google is way ahead of Microsoft if stock prices are used as a measure of success.
However, It seems that Bill Gate is not resting on his laurels. He has been quoted in leaked memos in October 2005 to have said:
"More than any other company, we have the vision, assets, experience, and aspirations to deliver experiences and solutions across the entire range of digital workstyle & digital lifestyle scenarios, and to do so at scale, reaching users, developers and businesses across all markets."
So, the battle between the giants continues even though the old PC-centric world is long gone and we are now in the web-centric age.
Sunday, July 15, 2007
Saper vedere and Everyday Greatness
Stumbled upon this Latin quote "Saper Vedere" from Leonardo Da Vinci in a Everyday Greatness, a book containing the best stories from Reader's Digest. Immediately, did a search on it and found that it meant "Knowing How to See.
Found an Internet link in A D V E N T U R E S in C Y B E R S O U N D and it clearly explains as below:
"An artist by disposition and endowment, he found that his eyes were his main avenue to knowledge; to Leonardo, sight was man's highest sense organ because sight alone conveyed the facts of experience immediately, correctly, and with certainty. Hence, every phenomenon perceived became an object of knowledge. Saper vedere ("knowing how to see") became the great theme of his studies of man's works and nature's creations. His creativity reached out into every realm in which graphic representation is used: he was painter, sculptor, architect, and engineer. But he went even beyond that. His superb intellect, his unusual powers of observation, and his mastery of the art of drawing led him to the study of nature itself, which he pursued with method and penetrating logic, and in which his art and his science were equally revealed."
So, in effect Leonardo did not depend on knowledge from books themselves, but through his powers of observation and experimentation of different fields of knowledge was he able to innovate and create more knowledge. He is definitely the greatest knowledge producer of all time!
Anyway, Everyday Greatness is also fantastic book; culling out short stories which I feel had some heart-warming endings for some and also inspiring in its message. The story of John Brady and Hazel truly touched me. I hope to finish it soon.... Life is also about fulfilling our inner soul, by reading stories like these, and hopefully being able to emulate the people in their noble behaviour and actions.
I guess Reader's Digest is the very original magazine that really is a good read. I remember my mum used to subscribe them when I was young and I used to pick them up to read in little chunks. Never did realise that it has such profound stories that can uplift people. Looks like its only other match would be Chicken Soup for the Soul by Jack Canfield and Mark Victor Hansen; had managed to see a VCD title, but not their books.
Found an Internet link in A D V E N T U R E S in C Y B E R S O U N D and it clearly explains as below:
"An artist by disposition and endowment, he found that his eyes were his main avenue to knowledge; to Leonardo, sight was man's highest sense organ because sight alone conveyed the facts of experience immediately, correctly, and with certainty. Hence, every phenomenon perceived became an object of knowledge. Saper vedere ("knowing how to see") became the great theme of his studies of man's works and nature's creations. His creativity reached out into every realm in which graphic representation is used: he was painter, sculptor, architect, and engineer. But he went even beyond that. His superb intellect, his unusual powers of observation, and his mastery of the art of drawing led him to the study of nature itself, which he pursued with method and penetrating logic, and in which his art and his science were equally revealed."
So, in effect Leonardo did not depend on knowledge from books themselves, but through his powers of observation and experimentation of different fields of knowledge was he able to innovate and create more knowledge. He is definitely the greatest knowledge producer of all time!
Anyway, Everyday Greatness is also fantastic book; culling out short stories which I feel had some heart-warming endings for some and also inspiring in its message. The story of John Brady and Hazel truly touched me. I hope to finish it soon.... Life is also about fulfilling our inner soul, by reading stories like these, and hopefully being able to emulate the people in their noble behaviour and actions.
I guess Reader's Digest is the very original magazine that really is a good read. I remember my mum used to subscribe them when I was young and I used to pick them up to read in little chunks. Never did realise that it has such profound stories that can uplift people. Looks like its only other match would be Chicken Soup for the Soul by Jack Canfield and Mark Victor Hansen; had managed to see a VCD title, but not their books.
Tuesday, June 26, 2007
Unknown Unknowns Part 2 - Impact on Average Joe
I remembered an article was published in the Straits Times regarding "unknown unknowns" and I went to find the newspaper clippings that I normally keep if I find them interesting.
On May 24 2007, Barry Desker, the Dean of S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University actually published a great book review of Seeing the Invisible: National Security Intelligence In an Uncertain Age.
Basically I intend to look for this book and read it myself. The basic take-away is that that asymmetric threats like terrorism (9/11) , disease pandemics (SARS) and natural resource shocks (Opec Crisis 1973) is a disruptive events that can bring about severe impact to not only the countries affected but in fact can become a transnational problem with severe consequences.
Anyway, my thoughts on this is in that such uncertain times, it seems that governments, corporations and big institutions are the only entities that have the resources and financial muscle to build systems or programs like RAHS, Scenario Planning or prediction markets. Prediction markets was mentioned in the book Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki. HP, Google and Microsoft are some of the companies that are using prediction markets to help them. However mostly, the applications has been on areas of national security or business planning purposes.
But, how about the common people? The man on the street who invests his life savings on stocks, bonds, property, unit trusts and other financial instruments. Also, not to mention the small business entrepreneur whose company who would probably not survive such severe shocks.
What can the common people do to help ensure that they can actually see the invisible threats to their lifetime of work or savings? Right now, I would say the there is nothing that they can possibly do. In the article by Barry Desker, he titled it "Why we must ponder the improbable". In my mind, I think for the average person, it should be titled "How can we (the common people) ponder the improbable?".
During the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, there were numerous newspaper reports of rich multi-millionaires falling victim to the meltdown of the markets. I cannot remember reading about housewives, working professionals or retirees that got severely burnt or possibly bankrupt through their own follies. But definitely, I would think the numbers are substantial throughout Asia and the rest of the world. Subsequently, I would think the bursting of the dot.com bubble in 2000 produced many more of such personal disasters.
Alan Greenspan would called this phenomena irrational exuberance in 1996 for the dot.com bubbles and the stock market slumps. But what gave him the insight or ability to see this would be probably he had all the resources that Federal Reserve Bank can provide and not to mention his own unique abilities.
But what can average Mr. Joe do?
Of course, to be able to appreciate such improbable scenarios, Joe would need to be fairly well-educated to understand the complexities and challenges. He would certainly also need to be reasonably well-read, able to collate, analyze, interpret various sources of information and make a conscious decision on what to do.
The problem lies on the fact that the Joe lack the necessary tools and knowledge (software, formal methods or techniques) to overcome the "how to ponder the improbable" question.
I think the way to go is through the use of open source software for prediction markets or the mass collaboration between like-minded individuals interested in such matters forming themselves into forums, online communities, wikis, and practically sharing of good knowledge. In another words, applying the concepts that are being proposed by the book Wikinomics.
Also, I think the Cognitive Edge methods which the company had released under Creative Commons license is open for all is a great resource although I must admit I had not given enough time or effort to understand the material there. Dave Snowden also gently reminded me in my previous post that Cognitive Edge now offers the use of the Sensemaker suite of software tools for employment of their methods.
I had glimpse of what DIANE by the Arlington Institute looks like and I would definitely love to evaluate a demo copy of the Sensemaker software, but I am not sure whether Dave or Cognitive Edge will release them under such terms.
So, I checked from its website that cites "while methods are open sourced, revenue generated to support the network through the development of software and the sale of software licenses and services". Maybe, I would need to be an accredited practitioner. Or maybe it will great to just let everyone see some screenshots of its capabilities.
Back to the solution to the question I posed earlier. In all true sense, it will take some ingenuity and commitment on the part of the community to able to muster enough resources and capability to be able to ponder the improbable unknown unknowns.
We will probably will never know how successful systems like RAHS or prediction markets run by corporations as they remain classified and confidential; which is why I made the statement of "That is still an unknown unknown and only when we know what can be known, therefore we cannot possibly know" in my previous post.
I do not think any government of the day or any corporation would release such information as it may impact them in certain ways. Let's say terrorists or competitors got wind of how their systems or programs are working; they would probably be able to circumvent the loopholes and probably succeed in their actions.
Maybe someday it will become a reality that Joe would be able to connect the dots possibly using the above mentioned solutions and be less impacted by the 9/11s, Oil Shocks, SARS, Financial Crisises and Stock Market Crashes that have plagued him and his family for far too long. Let's see.
On May 24 2007, Barry Desker, the Dean of S.Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University actually published a great book review of Seeing the Invisible: National Security Intelligence In an Uncertain Age.
Basically I intend to look for this book and read it myself. The basic take-away is that that asymmetric threats like terrorism (9/11) , disease pandemics (SARS) and natural resource shocks (Opec Crisis 1973) is a disruptive events that can bring about severe impact to not only the countries affected but in fact can become a transnational problem with severe consequences.
Anyway, my thoughts on this is in that such uncertain times, it seems that governments, corporations and big institutions are the only entities that have the resources and financial muscle to build systems or programs like RAHS, Scenario Planning or prediction markets. Prediction markets was mentioned in the book Wisdom of the Crowds by James Surowiecki. HP, Google and Microsoft are some of the companies that are using prediction markets to help them. However mostly, the applications has been on areas of national security or business planning purposes.
But, how about the common people? The man on the street who invests his life savings on stocks, bonds, property, unit trusts and other financial instruments. Also, not to mention the small business entrepreneur whose company who would probably not survive such severe shocks.
What can the common people do to help ensure that they can actually see the invisible threats to their lifetime of work or savings? Right now, I would say the there is nothing that they can possibly do. In the article by Barry Desker, he titled it "Why we must ponder the improbable". In my mind, I think for the average person, it should be titled "How can we (the common people) ponder the improbable?".
During the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997, there were numerous newspaper reports of rich multi-millionaires falling victim to the meltdown of the markets. I cannot remember reading about housewives, working professionals or retirees that got severely burnt or possibly bankrupt through their own follies. But definitely, I would think the numbers are substantial throughout Asia and the rest of the world. Subsequently, I would think the bursting of the dot.com bubble in 2000 produced many more of such personal disasters.
Alan Greenspan would called this phenomena irrational exuberance in 1996 for the dot.com bubbles and the stock market slumps. But what gave him the insight or ability to see this would be probably he had all the resources that Federal Reserve Bank can provide and not to mention his own unique abilities.
But what can average Mr. Joe do?
Of course, to be able to appreciate such improbable scenarios, Joe would need to be fairly well-educated to understand the complexities and challenges. He would certainly also need to be reasonably well-read, able to collate, analyze, interpret various sources of information and make a conscious decision on what to do.
The problem lies on the fact that the Joe lack the necessary tools and knowledge (software, formal methods or techniques) to overcome the "how to ponder the improbable" question.
I think the way to go is through the use of open source software for prediction markets or the mass collaboration between like-minded individuals interested in such matters forming themselves into forums, online communities, wikis, and practically sharing of good knowledge. In another words, applying the concepts that are being proposed by the book Wikinomics.
Also, I think the Cognitive Edge methods which the company had released under Creative Commons license is open for all is a great resource although I must admit I had not given enough time or effort to understand the material there. Dave Snowden also gently reminded me in my previous post that Cognitive Edge now offers the use of the Sensemaker suite of software tools for employment of their methods.
I had glimpse of what DIANE by the Arlington Institute looks like and I would definitely love to evaluate a demo copy of the Sensemaker software, but I am not sure whether Dave or Cognitive Edge will release them under such terms.
So, I checked from its website that cites "while methods are open sourced, revenue generated to support the network through the development of software and the sale of software licenses and services". Maybe, I would need to be an accredited practitioner. Or maybe it will great to just let everyone see some screenshots of its capabilities.
Back to the solution to the question I posed earlier. In all true sense, it will take some ingenuity and commitment on the part of the community to able to muster enough resources and capability to be able to ponder the improbable unknown unknowns.
We will probably will never know how successful systems like RAHS or prediction markets run by corporations as they remain classified and confidential; which is why I made the statement of "That is still an unknown unknown and only when we know what can be known, therefore we cannot possibly know" in my previous post.
I do not think any government of the day or any corporation would release such information as it may impact them in certain ways. Let's say terrorists or competitors got wind of how their systems or programs are working; they would probably be able to circumvent the loopholes and probably succeed in their actions.
Maybe someday it will become a reality that Joe would be able to connect the dots possibly using the above mentioned solutions and be less impacted by the 9/11s, Oil Shocks, SARS, Financial Crisises and Stock Market Crashes that have plagued him and his family for far too long. Let's see.
Monday, June 25, 2007
Standing on the Shoulder of Giants
I saw Google Scholar's motto "Standing on the Shoulder of Giants" and wondered what does it mean. Apparently, it was famously used by Issac Newton in his letter to Robert Hooke, February 5, 1675 attributing his dependency on Galileo’s and Kepler’s work in physics and astronomy.
He said "If I have seen further [than certain other men] it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants."
Nevertheless, it also means to say Newton was able to produce and contribute immensely to human stock of knowledge because of prior knowledge that was already discovered by earlier men(women).
Well, it seems that every generation would somehow benefit from the work of the previous. Which is why we are enjoying the longer lifespans, being healthier, more leisure options and other positive benefits that are incalculable in every conceivable field of human endeavour.
He said "If I have seen further [than certain other men] it is by standing upon the shoulders of giants."
Nevertheless, it also means to say Newton was able to produce and contribute immensely to human stock of knowledge because of prior knowledge that was already discovered by earlier men(women).
Well, it seems that every generation would somehow benefit from the work of the previous. Which is why we are enjoying the longer lifespans, being healthier, more leisure options and other positive benefits that are incalculable in every conceivable field of human endeavour.
Unknown Unknowns
Today, in Singapore's Straits Times, its Second Minister for Finance, Tharman Shanmugaratnam was quoted the term "unknown unknowns". He is quoted to be have said "the unknown unknowns that come along every few years, and it could be a pretty vicious unknown unknown with an unwinding that's unpredictable in global financial markets."
Ah... this term is not new actually, another notable person first came out with this concept some five years ago but based on a national security context. I remembered it distinctly as I think it has many relevances in the current environment of our globalized world.
I quote from Donald Rumsfeld, ex-Secretary of Defense of United States:
The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.
—Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing
For more of his poetry, you can get from here where the above was extracted too.
So, what is the solution to this unknown unknown problem. Scenario planning is one traditional tool that many governments and organizations has been using but with so many potential variables in different contexts, I think it can be useful to only a certain extent. Shell is one global business that uses it.
However recently, Cognitive-Edge and the Arlington Institute has assisted as two principle consultants to RAHS (Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning System) in Singapore.
"Some of the latest technology employed in the RAHS system allow for model-building, monitoring, weak signal detection and pattern analysis. Integrating traditional scenario planning frameworks with innovative thought models like the Cynefin concepts pioneered by Cognitive Edge ensures that the system is robust and able to handle a diverse spectrum of threats"
NEWS RELEASE 1 February 2007 Singapore to showcase innovative Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) system
So, in integrating with new thought models offered by Cognitive Edge and tools developed by The Arlington Institute, Singapore is pioneering ahead in this field of solving the "unknown unknowns" problem. I am not sure whether it is being used as part of the economic and financial defence of Singapore, although it seems the the main application of the system is against terroism and health-related threats like SARS.
Nevertheless, it should provide a shield of some sorts and hopefully it does what it promises to do. That is still an unknown unknown and only when we know what can be known, therefore we cannot possibly know.
Ah... this term is not new actually, another notable person first came out with this concept some five years ago but based on a national security context. I remembered it distinctly as I think it has many relevances in the current environment of our globalized world.
I quote from Donald Rumsfeld, ex-Secretary of Defense of United States:
The Unknown
As we know,
There are known knowns.
There are things we know we know.
We also know
There are known unknowns.
That is to say
We know there are some things
We do not know.
But there are also unknown unknowns,
The ones we don't know
We don't know.
—Feb. 12, 2002, Department of Defense news briefing
For more of his poetry, you can get from here where the above was extracted too.
So, what is the solution to this unknown unknown problem. Scenario planning is one traditional tool that many governments and organizations has been using but with so many potential variables in different contexts, I think it can be useful to only a certain extent. Shell is one global business that uses it.
However recently, Cognitive-Edge and the Arlington Institute has assisted as two principle consultants to RAHS (Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning System) in Singapore.
"Some of the latest technology employed in the RAHS system allow for model-building, monitoring, weak signal detection and pattern analysis. Integrating traditional scenario planning frameworks with innovative thought models like the Cynefin concepts pioneered by Cognitive Edge ensures that the system is robust and able to handle a diverse spectrum of threats"
NEWS RELEASE 1 February 2007 Singapore to showcase innovative Risk Assessment and Horizon Scanning (RAHS) system
So, in integrating with new thought models offered by Cognitive Edge and tools developed by The Arlington Institute, Singapore is pioneering ahead in this field of solving the "unknown unknowns" problem. I am not sure whether it is being used as part of the economic and financial defence of Singapore, although it seems the the main application of the system is against terroism and health-related threats like SARS.
Nevertheless, it should provide a shield of some sorts and hopefully it does what it promises to do. That is still an unknown unknown and only when we know what can be known, therefore we cannot possibly know.
Tuesday, June 19, 2007
21st Century Personal Productivity
I have always been looking to increase my personal productivity but it is really difficult. Been trying to find a solution/products or way to manage all my information and knowledge assets. The best that I could come up with is Microsoft's OneNote so far which in the end I also seldom use. In the past, I used a mixture of spreadsheets, Palm PDA, traditional notebook, then O2 mini PDA phone and then back to the notebook again . But really, the system I am using is not what I am entirely proud of.
So, Ihave been looking around in the internet and found some simple but elegant solutions which I intend to try out:
The PocketMod
An simple alternative to our modern PDAs. Just a tool to turn our A4 size piece of paper into a useful pocket booklet where you can store all kinds of information. I will probably try using this; or otherwise buy a moleskines (thought I saw it being sold in Borders). Easy and portable which can fit into my backpocket, easily accessible whenever I want to use. So far, OneNote sits inside my computer notebook and the traditional notebook is too cumbersome for me to carry around most of the time. So, I am hoping either the PocketMod or Moleskine will be my breakthrough solution which will enable me to keep tabs on everything.
It seems I keep finding links to the GTD (Getting Things Done) by David Allen. Think I will look and find out what the hype is about his way of personal productivity. Then I found blogs that extols the virtues of various applications that will make our lives much more easier and efficient.
1) Kinkless
2) Life Hacks
The blogs provided lots of suggestions and I found links to download two applications: a mindmapping software: Freemind (supposedly helps in our thinking process through pictures and illustrations) and a GTD tool called Thinking Rock. So far, looks good to me; but the real test is still whether I will fully utilise them as part of my daily routine of scheduling, prioritizing and acting on the to-do lists.
So, Ihave been looking around in the internet and found some simple but elegant solutions which I intend to try out:
The PocketMod
An simple alternative to our modern PDAs. Just a tool to turn our A4 size piece of paper into a useful pocket booklet where you can store all kinds of information. I will probably try using this; or otherwise buy a moleskines (thought I saw it being sold in Borders). Easy and portable which can fit into my backpocket, easily accessible whenever I want to use. So far, OneNote sits inside my computer notebook and the traditional notebook is too cumbersome for me to carry around most of the time. So, I am hoping either the PocketMod or Moleskine will be my breakthrough solution which will enable me to keep tabs on everything.
It seems I keep finding links to the GTD (Getting Things Done) by David Allen. Think I will look and find out what the hype is about his way of personal productivity. Then I found blogs that extols the virtues of various applications that will make our lives much more easier and efficient.
1) Kinkless
2) Life Hacks
The blogs provided lots of suggestions and I found links to download two applications: a mindmapping software: Freemind (supposedly helps in our thinking process through pictures and illustrations) and a GTD tool called Thinking Rock. So far, looks good to me; but the real test is still whether I will fully utilise them as part of my daily routine of scheduling, prioritizing and acting on the to-do lists.
KT and Mckinsey Way
Remember the scene in the movie Apollo 13 where the NASA engineers were figuring out what was the problem with spacecraft? What the movie did not show was that they were using Kepner-Tregoes Analytical Troubleshooting Techniques.
I had the fortune to attend two of their workshops nearly ten years ago. To this day, I still remember the principles behind ATS (Analytic Troubleshooting) and PSDM (Problem Solving and Decision Making). It actually formed the cornerstone of my technical troubleshooting skills. The book, The New Rational Manager by Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe is highly recommended by me.
Over the years, I gradually adapted it into hybrid system with other principles whom I felt comfortable with.
Basically, I took the principles of the "low hanging fruit" and "hypothesis", MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) from two books, The Mckinsey Mind and The Mckinsey Way by Ethan M Rasiel. Even for ATS and PSDM, there are some differences in their process methodology.
PSDM:
1) Situation Appraisal;
2) Problem Analysis;
3) Decision Analysis;
4) Potential Problem Analysis;
5) Potential Opportunity Analysis
ATS:
1) Recognize a Problem;
2) Find True Cause;
3) Select a Fix;
4) Avoid Future Problems
Application of use between the two are similar but PSDM is much more cross-disciplinary whilst ATS is more technical oriented.
I do not always use the above KT process methodology faithfully in most of problem solving situations, but I had seen that when consciously applying some of the above principles with the ones from Mckinsey; I managed to successfully solve some difficult work problems I had.
Ten years on, I still keep the ATS reminder cards that were given out in the workshops; can't find the PSDM ones, think I may lost them.
It does have its limitations though as KT do not cater to the human element touch which a rational logical process cannot possibly cover. However, as mentioned, Mckinsey's other principles as detailed in their books can help to bridge the gaps.
I had the fortune to attend two of their workshops nearly ten years ago. To this day, I still remember the principles behind ATS (Analytic Troubleshooting) and PSDM (Problem Solving and Decision Making). It actually formed the cornerstone of my technical troubleshooting skills. The book, The New Rational Manager by Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe is highly recommended by me.
Over the years, I gradually adapted it into hybrid system with other principles whom I felt comfortable with.
Basically, I took the principles of the "low hanging fruit" and "hypothesis", MECE (mutually exclusive, collectively exhaustive) from two books, The Mckinsey Mind and The Mckinsey Way by Ethan M Rasiel. Even for ATS and PSDM, there are some differences in their process methodology.
PSDM:
1) Situation Appraisal;
2) Problem Analysis;
3) Decision Analysis;
4) Potential Problem Analysis;
5) Potential Opportunity Analysis
ATS:
1) Recognize a Problem;
2) Find True Cause;
3) Select a Fix;
4) Avoid Future Problems
Application of use between the two are similar but PSDM is much more cross-disciplinary whilst ATS is more technical oriented.
I do not always use the above KT process methodology faithfully in most of problem solving situations, but I had seen that when consciously applying some of the above principles with the ones from Mckinsey; I managed to successfully solve some difficult work problems I had.
Ten years on, I still keep the ATS reminder cards that were given out in the workshops; can't find the PSDM ones, think I may lost them.
It does have its limitations though as KT do not cater to the human element touch which a rational logical process cannot possibly cover. However, as mentioned, Mckinsey's other principles as detailed in their books can help to bridge the gaps.
Monday, June 18, 2007
Wikinomics and MIT OpenCourseWare
Been reading the book Wikinomics - How Mass collaboration Changes Everything when I saw that MIT is offering its course materials in the internet termed as OpenCourseWare.
I thought Wow!... this is quite impossible. Just now, went to its link and find that this is totally true. It has everything from Anthropology, Economics, Writing to Business Management. All for free.
Anything that you want to learn is in there. Great resource to goto if you need some intellectual stimulation.
Back to the book; I had just started but its authors Don Tapscott and Anthony Williams is actually relating some good ideas on how a new business models in the current Web 2.0 internet age can be applied in the economic sense. It is real interesting on how the concept of openess, peering, sharing and acting globally can in the current econonic context thrive when the basic tenets of generating wealth through knowledge in our existing business models means keen protection of intellectual property through copyrights and patents.
Interesting read and I hope to finish it soon enough.
I thought Wow!... this is quite impossible. Just now, went to its link and find that this is totally true. It has everything from Anthropology, Economics, Writing to Business Management. All for free.
Anything that you want to learn is in there. Great resource to goto if you need some intellectual stimulation.
Back to the book; I had just started but its authors Don Tapscott and Anthony Williams is actually relating some good ideas on how a new business models in the current Web 2.0 internet age can be applied in the economic sense. It is real interesting on how the concept of openess, peering, sharing and acting globally can in the current econonic context thrive when the basic tenets of generating wealth through knowledge in our existing business models means keen protection of intellectual property through copyrights and patents.
Interesting read and I hope to finish it soon enough.
Boyd's Process for Vacant Car Park Lots
Here in Singapore, car parks in popular shopping malls, places where a high volume of people congregate during the weekends is probably the most competitive activity there is for drivers looking for the free lot.
Tens and tens of cars patrol the alleyways looking and scanning for the free lot that does not seem exist at all. It is like a sea of cars sitting on bums, just refusing to budge until the occasional shopper decides he wants to visit another place outside this shopping mall.
For me, this is a problem that I thought hard on how to solve. One, is to totally avoid the crowd by going to other places where lesser or no-one wants to go. But however, this is not the solution to the problem at hand.
So, I remembered that I read about John Boyd and his OODA loop process. Although it may seem ridiculous to associate this elite Vietnam War fighter pilot with a Singaporean driver in a shopping mall, but I do find the situations quite similar.
In the skys over Vietnam, where it is vast emptiness of blue with only white clouds only acting as the only cover, Boyd subconsciously applied his OODA loop process to successfully engage in numerous dogfights of which he has never lost a single one.
In a quite a different context, the shopping mall car park is dimly lit, filled with a mass of cars, while competing with other adversaries for the free lot that is made available only when the departing shoppers decide to leave the mall.
So, in a nutshell, I applied this process consciously twice and managed to find a lot within five to ten minutes on a busy weekend noontime at two different shopping malls. I present the process as below:
1) Observation: the collection of data by means of the senses (through sight and see whether there are departing shopping patrons in your vicinity).
2) Orientation: the analysis and synthesis of data to form one's current mental perspective. (Determine whether the shopper is heading which direction where his car is parked).
3) Decision: the determination of a course of action based on one's current mental perspective (Decide whether you want to intercept this shopper to the car park lot that you think is where he had parked his car).
4) Action: the physical playing-out of decisions. (Drive your car immediately once your decision is made to the soon to be vacant lot).
Read the concepts that is explained by Boyd in above the links, and try it out. It worked for me!
Tens and tens of cars patrol the alleyways looking and scanning for the free lot that does not seem exist at all. It is like a sea of cars sitting on bums, just refusing to budge until the occasional shopper decides he wants to visit another place outside this shopping mall.
For me, this is a problem that I thought hard on how to solve. One, is to totally avoid the crowd by going to other places where lesser or no-one wants to go. But however, this is not the solution to the problem at hand.
So, I remembered that I read about John Boyd and his OODA loop process. Although it may seem ridiculous to associate this elite Vietnam War fighter pilot with a Singaporean driver in a shopping mall, but I do find the situations quite similar.
In the skys over Vietnam, where it is vast emptiness of blue with only white clouds only acting as the only cover, Boyd subconsciously applied his OODA loop process to successfully engage in numerous dogfights of which he has never lost a single one.
In a quite a different context, the shopping mall car park is dimly lit, filled with a mass of cars, while competing with other adversaries for the free lot that is made available only when the departing shoppers decide to leave the mall.
So, in a nutshell, I applied this process consciously twice and managed to find a lot within five to ten minutes on a busy weekend noontime at two different shopping malls. I present the process as below:
1) Observation: the collection of data by means of the senses (through sight and see whether there are departing shopping patrons in your vicinity).
2) Orientation: the analysis and synthesis of data to form one's current mental perspective. (Determine whether the shopper is heading which direction where his car is parked).
3) Decision: the determination of a course of action based on one's current mental perspective (Decide whether you want to intercept this shopper to the car park lot that you think is where he had parked his car).
4) Action: the physical playing-out of decisions. (Drive your car immediately once your decision is made to the soon to be vacant lot).
Read the concepts that is explained by Boyd in above the links, and try it out. It worked for me!
Sunday, May 6, 2007
Knowing you know nothing = ?
I was just reading journeyman's comments of my previous post "raison d'etre"; and what he said triggered me to wonder how and when will anyone gain true wisdom in the sense of the word...
So, I googled it and I found a quote from Socrates as below:
"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing" Socrates
I loved it. The name of this blog should actually change to... "Knowlege to Knowing You Know Nothing"... hehee ;p. All my life, I have been reading and enquiring about things, and I have always felt that I still do not know enough.
So, I googled it and I found a quote from Socrates as below:
"The only true wisdom is in knowing you know nothing" Socrates
I loved it. The name of this blog should actually change to... "Knowlege to Knowing You Know Nothing"... hehee ;p. All my life, I have been reading and enquiring about things, and I have always felt that I still do not know enough.
When I first titled this blog's name, I was really thinking about my past years of constant reading. Then it occurred to me when and how can I attain wisdom. I also asked myself whether wisdom can only be attained by someone old and elderly (because I always had the image of an old man with white beard sitting up in the mountain where "ying xiong" or heroes will come up and seek their advice or to learn their skills... hmmn maybe its due to my childhood days watching "wuxia pian"
So finally, I decided to title it as "Knowledge to True Wisdom"... meaning I was hoping to gain knowledge and attaining true wisdom during the course of my life's journey before I start knocking on heaven's doors.
But tonight, it seems all clear to me now. I had known that I do not know enough before, but what I should had known was I know nothing at all.....
Get it?
Saturday, May 5, 2007
Multinational Citizens
Who are the only "persons" in the legal sense whom can become citizens of many countries? They are being allowed to own, buy and sell property in practically all the countries of world. Well, the "persons" just happened to be multinational corporations like Shell, Goodyear, IBM, McDonalds and so forth....
The Corporation by Mark Achbar and Jennifer Abbot underscores the influence, power and implications of the corporate entity to the world since its first inception in history. In all areas of society, we are being brought up to belief that the business is good, and wealth is the way to prosperity. Remember the 80's when the mantra "Greed is Good" as echoed by Gordon Gekko in the film Wall Street. It was a hilarious start to the film when the film-makers cleverly put together a series of media shots of people describing the corporate debacles of the past years as "Bad Apples"... I really enjoyed it.
It seems globalization is major theme of this film because it practically describes corporations has permeated into our society by even submitting patents for living organisms, seeds and all things the natural earth has endowed us. Well, I am not sure how they are going to patent all these... but with profit as a main motivator, they will find some means to do it legally. Whether it is enforceable in the eyes of Mother Nature... that is not for them to decide. With global warming as discussed in my previous post, and if no definite steps are taken to address it, all the profit and gains would not be enjoyed by anyone. One CEO interviewed, even called himself "A plunderer of Earth"... this sounds like suitable description so far.
The corporations also tries to own knowledge that has been endowed upon us from the generations of people before us. This in a business perspective seems natural for the corporations but I think this has gone abit too far. Knowledge that we have today, is being enjoyed by us because of the fruits of labour of our past ancestors. The concept of intellectual ownership of knowledge is fairly recent in our history.
I am not saying intellectual property or capital of the various artistes or companies of today should not be respected, but there should be some measure whereby the knowledge accumulated in the past could be in accessed freely and used by all. Of course, I do not offer a roadmap or framework on the how to deal with this... but definitely it should not allow the rule of externalities that was discussed in the film to be abused by the corporations.
Noam Chomsky is one notable interviewee in this film; one whom I admire for his intellectual prowess. His arguments on the various points shows and it makes the film a more watchable one. I remembered a friend of mine mentioned to me about him once a time and I had begun to read Chomsky's articles online.
In an nutshell, this is a film about globalization as well. People from the developing countries exploited by their meagre wages, while the products they produce are being sold at incredible high prices in the developed ones. The companies make no apologies for this, as profits are their main purpose of their existence.
It brings to my mind a book entitled "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" by John Perkins. Similarly, after watching this film and cross-referencing to Perkin's story of global institutions like World Bank, IMF and so forth, I begin to wonder if this is the new societal order that has sprung out in this point of our human history. Of course, anyone would know in previous eras, there were the empires, kingdoms, the church, feudalism and other forms of dominant power in our civilisation.
So, the question is how are we affected by the "soft power" of the corporation wielded by the few in the name of their shareholders on society. Well, one learning point for me is "The Nag Factor". This seemingly marketing tactic has made children of ours as the focal point target to manipulate parents to buy things that they don't seem to need. Well, this is really something I need to be conscious about.... before wielding my credit card while on my way to a cashier at least....
The Corporation by Mark Achbar and Jennifer Abbot underscores the influence, power and implications of the corporate entity to the world since its first inception in history. In all areas of society, we are being brought up to belief that the business is good, and wealth is the way to prosperity. Remember the 80's when the mantra "Greed is Good" as echoed by Gordon Gekko in the film Wall Street. It was a hilarious start to the film when the film-makers cleverly put together a series of media shots of people describing the corporate debacles of the past years as "Bad Apples"... I really enjoyed it.
It seems globalization is major theme of this film because it practically describes corporations has permeated into our society by even submitting patents for living organisms, seeds and all things the natural earth has endowed us. Well, I am not sure how they are going to patent all these... but with profit as a main motivator, they will find some means to do it legally. Whether it is enforceable in the eyes of Mother Nature... that is not for them to decide. With global warming as discussed in my previous post, and if no definite steps are taken to address it, all the profit and gains would not be enjoyed by anyone. One CEO interviewed, even called himself "A plunderer of Earth"... this sounds like suitable description so far.
The corporations also tries to own knowledge that has been endowed upon us from the generations of people before us. This in a business perspective seems natural for the corporations but I think this has gone abit too far. Knowledge that we have today, is being enjoyed by us because of the fruits of labour of our past ancestors. The concept of intellectual ownership of knowledge is fairly recent in our history.
I am not saying intellectual property or capital of the various artistes or companies of today should not be respected, but there should be some measure whereby the knowledge accumulated in the past could be in accessed freely and used by all. Of course, I do not offer a roadmap or framework on the how to deal with this... but definitely it should not allow the rule of externalities that was discussed in the film to be abused by the corporations.
Noam Chomsky is one notable interviewee in this film; one whom I admire for his intellectual prowess. His arguments on the various points shows and it makes the film a more watchable one. I remembered a friend of mine mentioned to me about him once a time and I had begun to read Chomsky's articles online.
In an nutshell, this is a film about globalization as well. People from the developing countries exploited by their meagre wages, while the products they produce are being sold at incredible high prices in the developed ones. The companies make no apologies for this, as profits are their main purpose of their existence.
It brings to my mind a book entitled "Confessions of an Economic Hit Man" by John Perkins. Similarly, after watching this film and cross-referencing to Perkin's story of global institutions like World Bank, IMF and so forth, I begin to wonder if this is the new societal order that has sprung out in this point of our human history. Of course, anyone would know in previous eras, there were the empires, kingdoms, the church, feudalism and other forms of dominant power in our civilisation.
So, the question is how are we affected by the "soft power" of the corporation wielded by the few in the name of their shareholders on society. Well, one learning point for me is "The Nag Factor". This seemingly marketing tactic has made children of ours as the focal point target to manipulate parents to buy things that they don't seem to need. Well, this is really something I need to be conscious about.... before wielding my credit card while on my way to a cashier at least....
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